Jarosław Kossakowski

Prawnik, zarządzający portfelem nieruchomości

Wypowiedzi

• Wszystko
• Tylko fora

• 
  Wpis na grupie Giełda w temacie CIEKAWOSTKI Z RYNKU I GOSPODARKI

  21.06.2010, 13:46

  Eryk N.:
  "Playing with Fire (A Possible Race to the Old Highs)" by Jeremy Grantham
  
  Grantham explains why he believes the rally will run through next fall.
  
  "In October we enter the third year of the Presidential Cycle, the year every Fed except, of course, Volcker's, helped the incumbent administrations get re-elected. Since 1932, there has never been a serious decline in Year 3. Never! Even the unexpected Korean War caused only a 2% decline. Even when Greenspan ran amok and over-stimulated the first two years instead of cooling the system down - which he did twice, having not suffered enough the first time - he stimulated Year 3 as well. The result was that we entered Year 3 in October 1998 and Year 3 in October 2006 with horribly overpriced markets, and still the market went up, and by a lot."
  
  So far since 1932 the market has had 19 tries to go down in the third year and has never pulled it off, he says.

  
  W drodze uzupełnienia i potwierdzenia rzecz jasna
  http://dwagrosze.blogspot.com/2008/07/inwestowanie-w-c...
  
  JJK