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Temat: Witajcie w depresji 2.0?
Poniżej link do ciekawego opracowania o obecnych wskaznikach gospodarczych. Znalazły się tutaj na forum osoby które NEGUJĄ ISTNIENIE KRYZYSU i twierdzą że nic nam nie grozi. Ja na to -> nie zgadzam się.A Tale of Two Depressions
Often cited comparisons – which look only at the US – find that today’s crisis is milder than the Great Depression. In this column, two leading economic historians show that the world economy is now plummeting in a Great-Depression-like manner; indeed, world industrial production, trade and stock markets are diving faster now than during 1929-30. Fortunately, the policy response to date is much better.
Figure 1. World Industrial Output, Now vs Then
Source: Eichengreen and O’Rourke (2009).
Figure 2. World Stock Markets, Now vs Then
Source: Global Financial Database.
Figure 3. The Volume of World Trade, Now vs Then
Sources: League of Nations Monthly Bulletin of Statistics, [url="http://www.cpb.nl/eng/research/sector2/data/trademonitor.html"]http://www.cpb.nl/eng/research/sector2/dat...ademonito...[/url]
Figure 4. Central Bank Discount Rates, Now vs Then (7 country average)
Source: Bernanke and Mihov (2000); Bank of England, ECB, Bank of Japan, St. Louis Fed, National Bank of Poland, Sveriges Riksbank.
Figure 5. Money Supplies, 19 Countries, Now vs Then
Source: Bordo et al. (2001), IMF International Financial Statistics, OECD Monthly Economic Indicators.
Figure 6. Government Budget Surpluses, Now vs Then
Source: Bordo et al. (2001), IMF World Economic Outlook, January 2009.
Conclusion
To summarize: the world is currently undergoing an economic shock every bit as big as the Great Depression shock of 1929-30. Looking just at the US leads one to overlook how alarming the current situation is even in comparison with 1929-30. The good news, of course, is that the policy response is very different. The question now is whether that policy response will work. For the answer, stay tuned for our next column.
SOURCEhttp://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/3421
Przy okazji -> zrobili już wszystko co można - drukują pieniądze jak się patrzy, stopy rekordowo niskie (np w UK od 365 lat). JUŻ WIĘCEJ NIC nie mogą zrobić. Czekamy na efekty.
pzdr,
PMM