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Five world markets themes in the coming week
LONDON
Fri Dec 4, 2009 12:49pm ESTLONDON (Reuters) - Following are five big themes likely to dominate thinking of investors and traders in the coming week and the Reuters stories related to them.
1/ YEN - FIGHT OR FLIGHT?
The yen remains within striking distance of recent 14-year highs, which means traders will stay on high alert for a response from Japan. The BOJ announced new liquidity-boosting measures to fight deflation at an extraordinary policy meeting -- and this, at a time when other major central banks like the ECB and Fed are embarking on a gradual path toward withdrawing excess liquidity. How long Japanese politicians can restrain the yen with rhetoric remains to be seen, but not all the market forces are against them given yen Libor continues to fall.
2/ LIQUIDITY AT A PRICE
Even with indexation to the refi rate introduced for the ECB's last one-year tender, demand from commercial banks is set to be high at this operation since it will be their last opportunity to get a full allotment of 12-month funds. While financial markets should be flush with liquidity through to the turn of the year, the unwinding of the ECB's unconventional policy measures could nevertheless start to filter through to higher short-term market interest rates in the coming months.
3/ GUIDANCE ON OUTLOOK
Financial markets aren't expecting policy changes from the BoE, SNB, or RBNZ meetings next week but that won't diminish the importance they attach to the central banks' assessment of the economic and financial system outlook given their concern with accurately pricing in the end of QE/unwinding of accommodative policies/rate hikes. The curve flattening seen after the ECB's announcements is a pretty good indication of how fixed income markets could react to a more hawkish stance than markets are expecting. Another wrinkle will be how the SNB squares its FX intervention policy with any indication that unconventional measures will be unwound.
4/ RATINGS AND RISK
Britain's pre-budget report next week will put the focus on the UK's ballooning budget deficit and on countries' fiscal health in general. Fitch has warned the UK's AAA rating could be at risk and it is not the only one whose ratings could come under pressure as countries work up 2010 debt issuance plans. Investors are already differentiating between sovereign credits (as shown by Greek spreads widening recently), let alone between sovereigns and quasi-sovereigns. As 2010 borrowing plans are finalized, any signs of political difficulties (eg in the form of polls suggesting a UK hung parliament) will unsettle markets, which are looking for strong leadership to deliver budget cuts.
5/ EMERGING CAUTIOUSLY
World stocks have emerged from Dubai-induced wobbles but a surprise contraction in the U.S. service sector was not exactly the sort of news to inspire potential buyers. The ECB's last one-year tender may be just the injection of cash that's needed to give a leg up to assets that have been benefiting from central bank largesse this year (and there's plenty of speculation that gold is among these assets) but investors are well aware that next year will bring a different environment as central banks start talking about exit, if not actually implementing it, and firms look to refinance in an environment of rising money and bond market rates.
(Compiled by Swaha Pattanaik; Editing by Andy Bruce)
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