Temat: CIEKAWOSTKI Z RYNKU I GOSPODARKI
What Do the New Unemployment Numbers Mean?
What do the new BLS numbers - 162,000 nonfarm jobs added in March - mean?
Negatives
• Average Hourly Earnings of all employees NFP fell by 2 cents, or 0.1%.
• Unemployment rate is unchanged at 9.7% (no improvement this month)
• U6 Unemployment, the broadest measure, rose to 16.9% –that’s off of the December 2009 peak of 17.3, but higher than January (16.5%) and February (16.8%) of 2010.
• Long-term unemployed (jobless for 27 weeks+) increased by 414,000 to 6.5 million. (bad)
• 44.1 percent of unemployed persons were jobless for 27 weeks +. (Also very bad)
• Involuntary part-time workers increased to 9.1 million in March. (This remains a stubborn problem area)
Positives
• +162k is the best report since March, 2007.
• Average workweek was up by 0.1 hour to 34.0 hours in March.
• Temp help services added 40,000 jobs in March. That’s a cumulative add of 313k since September 2009.
• Census added “only” 48,000 workers — far below the 100-150k consensus. This pushes their hiring out into the rest of the year.
• Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate at 64.9% edged up in March
• Manufacturing continued to trend up (+17,000); Mfr added 45,000 jobs in Q1.
• Revisions: January 2010 data was revised upwards 40k (from-26k to +14k); February was revised up 22k (from -36k to -14k).
Stone-McCarthy points out that - if we subtract the temporary hiring of census workers, better weather and birth-death model adjustments - we're left with a netloss of 67,000 jobs.
Indeed, Goldman Sachs attributes the job gain as "due mainly if not entirely to census hiring and weather rebound", finds "little underlying improvement", and says that "productivity gains have diminished sharply".
Eryk N. edytował(a) ten post dnia 07.04.10 o godzinie 16:44
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