Temat: Analizy "Grubych Ryb"
7 Oct 2011
"The new Quantitative Easing programme has a number of quite attractive features"
- Christian Ewerhart, Professor at University of Zurich
The Federal Open Market Committee announced September 21 the execution of Quantitative Easing (QE) plan which is also named Operation Twist. The Fed's plan is to buy $400 billion of long-term debt, thus making it easier to receive a mortgage or to get a business loan at a favourable loan rate which would result in rallying economic growth and employment. The strategy is to purchase bonds with maturities of six to 30 years and sell an equal amount of shorter-term securities less than in 3 years. In this respect Dukascopy has asked expert's opinion on the upcoming Quantitative Easing.
Fundamental market overview
EUR
French government budget balance was at EUR -102.8B - a much weaker result than July reading of EUR -86.6B. On the other hand, the French trade balance improved, and stood at EUR -5B at the end of August, despite a pessimistic projection of EUR -6.4B.
USD
Non-farm employment increased by 103K in September, significantly outperforming forecasts of 55K after a 57K reading in August. US unemployment rate remained at 9.1% in September in line with forecasts and August reading.
JPY
Japan's leading indicators stood at 103.8% in August, as forecasted previously. August data was revised downwards to 104.6%. Bank of Japan released their account report today, and BoJ currently holds JPY 138.39 trillion in assets, including almost 5 trillion in foreign currency assets.
CHF
Swiss unemployment rate has remained unchanged in September, and stands at 3.0%, in line with forecasts. Official SNB rate for EURCHF is at CHF 1.2365 today. Yields of 10Y Swiss Confederation bonds have increased to 1.01%.
GBP
UK PPI input and output data for September was released today by National Statistics. Manufacturers paid 1.7% more for raw materials, and sold their goods for 0.3% less than in August. Previous month release readings were -1.8% and 0.1% respectively.
Market expectations
EUR/USD
Daily maximum: 1.3516
Daily minimum: 1.3403
The mean target set by the major market participants at 1.3393 was not reached today as the pair commenced a bullish rebound despite the release of positive US macroeconomic data.
Support levels at 1.3295, 1.3164 and 1.2955 might be tested if the bearish trend continues, while the breach of 1.3504 exposes further resistance levels at 1.3581 and 1.3790. The daily trading signals are neutral.
EUR/JPY
Daily maximum: 103.85
Daily minimum: 102.8
The market mean at 103.35 has been thrusted as the French and German economies showed better-than-expected figures.
Support levels remained untapped and still hold at 102.04, 101.14 and 99.72 whereas resistance levels at 103.98 and 105.40 should taken into consideration by the bullish investors. The daily trading signals point at a flat trend.
GBP/USD
Daily maximum: 1.5598
Daily minimum: 1.5424
The market participants' target at 1.5416 was reached today as the month-to-month PPI input showed a 1.7% increase against the economists forecast of 1.3%.
While none of the support levels (1.5305; 1.5173; 1.4943) have been approached, investors should closely watch resistance levels at 1.5633 and 1.5863. The daily trading signals remain neutral.
USD/JPY
Daily maximum: 76.90
Daily minimum: 76.59
The daily mean at 76.81 has been crossed as the US economy added 103,000 jobs in September versus expected 55,000.
Support levels (76.54/41/13) remain unbreached today and resistance 2 and 3 at 76.96 and 77.24 might be tested if the uptrend gains strength. The trading signals remain neutral.
USD/CHF
Daily maximum: 0.9220
Daily minimum: 0.9159
The mean target at 0.9210 has been reached though the pair moved lower as the greenback rallied on more-than-expected positive employment change.
None of the support (.9148; .9102; .8972) and resistance (.9278; .9361; .9490) levels have been breached, so investors should be aware of thiese levels to react in case of increased market volatility. The daily stance remains neutral.
Most important events of the day
Europe
Greek government said it is not going to meet deficit target of 7.6% of GDP this year and agreed on additional austerity measures.
Germany, France split on bank aid before summit
Germany and France are split ahead of crucial summit talks on Sunday over how to strengthen shaky European banks and fight financial market contagion to prepare for a possible Greek default.
USA
Fed has launched another round of economic stimulation by purchasing long-term Treasuries and issuing short term ones in their place.
Job Creation Posts Jump, But Rate Still Steady at 9.1%
The U.S. jobs picture beat tepid expectations, with the economy creating a significantly better than expected 103,000 new jobs in September that nonetheless was not enough to cut the unemployment rate from 9.1 percent.
Asia & Pacific
Chinese top officials say export growth is likely to slowdown in rest of 2011.
China's PMI Shows Soft Landing for Economy: Strategists
The latest data out of China may reflect a contraction in the manufacturing sector, but analysts told CNBC investors shouldn't be too concerned, as the slowdown is exactly as ordered by Beijing to avoid a hard landing for the economy.
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